We created this series because many of you have told us that you love following your horse's journey but want to learn more about what happens behind the scenes. One question we hear often from you is: "How hard is it, really? When will we get another graded stakes winner?” The short answer? Extremely hard.
Every year, roughly 18,000 Thoroughbred foals are born across North America. Every one of them is bred with the hope that they'll grow into a successful racehorse.
But that's where the similarities end.
Long before a horse ever walks into the paddock on race day, it has already beaten some remarkable odds. Many never make it to the racetrack. Others race but never win. And only a tiny percentage will ever compete—or win—at the highest levels of the sport.
This week, we're following that journey from the foaling barn to the winner's circle using statistics from The Jockey Club and historical industry benchmarks. The numbers tell an incredible story—and they make every start, win, and stakes victory that much more meaningful.
Next week, we bring you part two of this story: How Does Commonwealth Stack Up?
Have a question or topic you would love us to cover? Drop us a line anytime at hello@joincommonwealth.com—we would love to hear from you!
The Funnel Tells the Story
Sometimes a picture really is worth a thousand words.
Out of every 100 Thoroughbred foals born:
- ~70 will ever make it to the races.
- Only 24 will ever win a race.
- Just 2 or 3 will become stakes winners.
- Fewer than one (just 0.2%) will ever become a graded stakes winner.
Think about that for a moment.
If you gathered 500 Thoroughbred foals born this year into one field, history suggests only one might grow up to win a Grade 1 race.
That's what makes this sport so fascinating and difficult, but so thrilling and rewarding to get in the winner’s circle at races like the Kentucky Derby, Breeders’ Cup, or any Grade 1 race.
How Many Foals Become Winners?
Making the races is hard.
Winning one is even harder.
Across the 2018-2021 North American foal crops, only about 24% of registered foals won a race.
Another way to look at it:
For every 100 foals born:
- 70 make a start
- 24 find the winner's circle
- 46 race but never record a victory
This helps explain why even a maiden victory deserves to be celebrated. By the time a horse reaches the winner's circle, it has already accomplished something that roughly three out of every four foals never will.
Why Is It So Hard to Win a Stakes Race?
It's easy to assume that once a horse starts winning, the next step is simply climbing the class ladder.
In reality, it rarely works that way.
A horse has to stay healthy enough to keep racing, continue improving with age and experience, and then face increasingly tougher competition at every level. Even the best horses can lose because of a poor pace scenario, traffic trouble, an unfavorable post position, or simply running into another exceptional horse that day.
Talent certainly matters, but so do durability, timing, race placement, and a little racing luck.
That's why reaching stakes company is such a significant accomplishment—and winning one is even rarer.
The Thoroughbred Success Funnel
The numbers become more impressive every step down the funnel.
Out of every 100 registered Thoroughbreds:
- 70 make it to the races.
- 24 become winners.
- 2 to 3 become stakes winners.
- Fewer than one becomes a graded stakes winner.
- Only about 0.2 horses become Grade 1 winners.
By the time you're talking about Grade 1 winners, you're discussing some of the rarest athletes in the entire Thoroughbred population.
Key Takeaways
- Roughly 18,000 Thoroughbreds are born in North America each year.
- About 70% will ever make a start.
- Only about 24% will ever win a race.
- Just 2-3% become stakes winners.
- Fewer than 1% become graded stakes winners.
- Grade 1 winners represent only a tiny fraction of the entire foal crop.
- Every step down the funnel represents years of development, soundness, talent, and opportunity.
The Big Picture
The next time you watch one of our horses walk into the starting gate, remember what it took just to get there.
Thousands of Thoroughbreds began the journey alongside them.
Many never made it to the races.
Others raced but never found the winner's circle.
Only a select few reached stakes company.
And only a small fraction earn graded stakes success.
That's what makes this sport so challenging—and so rewarding.
Every start matters.
Every win is worth celebrating.
And every time one of our horses competes on racing's biggest stages, they're doing something that only a tiny fraction of Thoroughbreds will ever accomplish.
Be on the lookout next week for the follow-up to this article, How Does Commonwealth Stack Up!
Important Disclosures
This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any security or interest in a horse. Statistics describe historical industry results and do not predict the performance, racing longevity, or financial outcome of any individual horse. Stakes and graded-stakes percentages are historical industry benchmarks and may vary according to the population, time period, and classification methodology used. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
